Positive Dollar Post NFP


The headline was weaker with +173k, so that’s 44k below the market consensus. That’s negative. However, data for June and July has been revised by a combined 44k, so in terms of employment change we have a pretty much neutral reading. Neutral with a negative hint because private employment looked weaker.

However, there two positives. First, unemployment rate declined substantially: from 5,3% to 5,1%. Part of a decline is a result of lower participation rate, so again the impact is less positive that at the first glance, but it is.

Finally, wages are growing slightly faster than anticipated (2,2% y/y) and weekly hours increased by 0.1. Not massive changes by any means but it all adds up.
Some to sum up, despite a weak headline we take the report as positive for the dollar.