We’r less than 1 hour away from the BoE decision that might very well be the main event today on the markets. It’s not really about the decision itself - any change in monetary conditions is extremely unlikely now. However, we will have a voting pattern and the minutes released at the same time and that might tell us more about the timing of the rate lift-off.
Let us recall that the mix of the UK data has been weak as of late:
retail sales was weak
both PMIs were weak, especially the key services PMI
manufacturing production (released yesterday) was ugly
labour market data was pretty much neutral
only the data on the house prices was upbeat, but that’s not the key figure
Given this background, recent comments from the BoE officials were surprisingly upbeat. Now the question is if this "upbeatness" is maintained in the minutes. The voting pattern (1-8 for the hike) is unlikely to change so the minutes is the key document for the GBP today. At the moment the market is cautious seeing a rate increase some 9 to 12 months from now.
The GBP/USD is up by 0,19% today, testing 1.54.