New York Empire State index surprised market sharply to the downside (HERE) showing a worst print since April 2009. Investors took it initially as a negative indicator for August ISM print. However looking deeper into the data, we notice, that it's the current assessment of the economic conditions that deteriorated sharply, however the 6-month forward looking outlook actually points to the strengthening of conditions. In the wake of such mixed signal stemming from both surveys it's hard to predict whether ISM should prove to turn sharply lower as well.
The Philly Fed due later this week could provide further insight. EURUSD initially rallied crossing 1,1120, however it retraced already, now trading close to 1,1080.
Oil was under pressure today, losing as much as 1,8% during the day, although WTI has erased some of the losses and is declining "only" by about 0,8%, the investors sentiment remains bearish.
OPEC published an estimate that once international sanctions against Iran will be waived, the group production could rise to as much as 33mn barrels per day increasing further the supply gut. Oil is not the only commodity failing to recover lately. Copper prices are lower today by about 1,6% as the lack of demand side factor leaves little scope for appreciation (