Small business being more upbeat in the US
Not the most important data to be sure but hey the NFIB index is up to 96.1 pts. in September from 95.9 pts. in August. Not a large increase but the consensus was 95.5 pts. Seeing what kind of the data we’re getting from China and Europe, the US still looks pretty good.
Vlieghe replaces Miles as the MPC member and currently testifies in front of UK Lawmakers. He said that:
Given current low levels of inflation, risks are skewed to the downside
The exchange rate is ’unreasonably strong’ (here goes the pound...)
Next interest rate move is more likely to be up than down
BoE can switch into ’wait and see’ before rate hike
Doesn’t see case for hike of more than 25 bp
Neutral rate is probably 1%-3% instead 3%-5%
Can cut Bank rate if necessary, more asset buys
Now that’s one heck of a dovish speech, no surprise that markets pushes the hike expectations to 2017.