PMI releases in the spotlight

marketsforu

The series of survey based manufacturing indices for September came into spotlight early in the session today. Chinese PMI, both the official one from government as well as Caixin/Markit (final) prints for September proved to be better than expected. We can notice, that risk-on scenario has been triggered post the release yet again. With the lack of trading sessions in China (for Shanghai Composite) we could expect couple of calmer, less volatile sessions.


The PMI index for Australia published by AiG showed improvement from 51,7 in August to 52,1 in September. The Australian dollar is advancing today by about 0,7%, taking the AUDUSD back above 0,70. However, it’s not only the print from Australia that is supportive for Aussie, but also the improvement in China, that may drive rebound in commodities markets.


Over night Bank of Japan published a Tankan Survey, a quarterly poll of business confidence in Japan. Although the current assessment as well as outlook has deteriorated to 12 and 10, from 15 and 16, the data were broadly in line with market expectations at 13 and 10 among manufacturers. Markit alongside with Nikkei published the final PMI manufacturing index for Japan. In the print, the September assessment among purchasing manager rose to 51,0 from 50,9 seen in flash release. USD/JPY is trading slightly above 120.


NOK is outperforming today, gaining about 0,65% vs. USD. PMI index proved to be much better than expected at 47,3, coming closer to the expansion zone. Rising oil price (about 1% today) are also factor in favor of krona strength.


UK PMI index attracted market attention today. The index was pretty much unchanged from the August print, however was above the consensus, that was betting a deterioration in the data.


Yesterday we highlighted that United States was at risk of a government shutdown as the budget for next fiscal year was not approved at that time. However just couple of hours ahead of the deadline the Congress was able to pass the bill, where vote showed 277 in favor vs 151 against. Federal government is going to continue its day-to-day activities, nevertheless risk is not going to abate fully, as Congress will discuss the issue yet again in December.